Everything You Need To Know About Assumptions Mapping

“Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in.” 

― Isaac Asimov 

Just like in life, making assumptions can cost you a lot. When it comes to entrepreneurship and building an MVP (Minimum Viable Product), making (wrong) assumptions can result in wasting money, time, energy, and oftentimes a failed product as well. 

Assumptions are not all bad - in fact, they are what drive you to come up with a new idea and start building something new. We only get in trouble when we take assumptions as the hard truth without any evidence. That’s where assumptions mapping comes into play - a powerful exercise that helps you unpack all assumptions you have and how they will affect your product. 

There are 3 types of categories when it comes to assumptions: 

Desirability 

• Do people want this product/feature/solution? 
• What makes you think that? 
• Who is the target audience for this solution? 
• What problem are we solving? 
• How do people deal with this problem today? 
• Why can’t people live without our solution? 
• Why will customers switch to this solution? 

Feasibility

• Are you able to create this product/feature given your business, resources etc.?
• Is this hard to build/is my development team capable? 
• Are there any regulatory restrictions I need to consider? 
• Why do we want to build this? 
• What makes our team the best one for this? 
• How are we going to pay for this?

Viability

• Can this product/feature thrive in the current environment? 
• Is it “viable”, aka is it realistic to build, scale and use it given all circumstances around it? 
• What are the risks? 
• How are we going to obtain customers? 
• Will customers be happy enough to spread the word? 
• Is this product/feature aligned with our company vision? 
• How are we going to make money? 
• Who are our competitors? 

When looking at typical lean startup methodology consisting of the Build, Measure, Learn cycle - founders oftentimes get stuck in the “build” mindset. “Build, build, build, so that my castle is big!”

However, this strategy lacks focus and fails to get the necessary feedback in order to build the right thing. Imagine building an incredible 5-bedroom, 3 floor house, with the coolest tech, a swimming pool, awesome playground etc. - only to find out that a 90-year old couple will be living there. Not really a great fit.

So how do I use assumptions mapping?

1. Take 3 colors of sticky notes: orange (desirability), blue (feasibility) and green (viability) 

2. Prepare a coordinate plane with 4 quadrants.

3. Write down each of your assumptions on a sticky note, based on the category they fall into 

4. Now that you have your sticky notes ready, put them into each quadrant, based on how important they are and what type of evidence you have for their validity.

Take a step back and look at your assumptions map. Everything inside the 3rd and 4th quadrant (bottom 2 quadrants) can be deferred and explored at a later time when their priority and importance shifts. 

Focus your experimentation on the 1st quadrant (top right) by gathering more quantitative and qualitative evidence. Move forward with the items in the 2nd quadrant (top left). 

By doing this exercise, you will be equipped to evaluate your assumptions from a more objective perspective and thus plan out your product roadmap more efficiently. 

Happy assuming!